Beginning with the historic 2004 hurricane season, in which five hurricanes hit Florida in six weeks, Tampa Bay has had a miraculous streak of near-misses with major hurricanes. 

In 2004, Hurricane Charlie was forecasted to make landfall in the Bay Area as a Category Four storm before suddenly and unexpectedly turning and landfalling in South Florida instead. None of the following four storms hit Florida or made landfall in Tampa, either.  In 2017, hurricane Irma was forecasted to make landfall in Tampa as a Category Three, but it turned toward the Florida Keys, making landfall there as a Category Four. In 2022, hurricane Ian was barreling toward Tampa before shifting south and making landfall in Fort Meyers as a Category Four storm. Ian became the second deadliest hurricane to impact the United States, behind Hurricane Katrina. 

Recently, on October 10, 2024, Tampa Bay had another remarkable near miss with Hurricane Milton. Just two weeks after hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend area– a storm that caused flooding in Tampa but did not make landfall there–hurricane Milton formed in the Gulf of Mexico and rapidly intensified from a category one to a category five hurricane in just twelve hours. At its peak, it became one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded. From its formation until the moment of landfall, meteorologists warned that Tampa’s luck had run out. Hurricane Milton was coming and bringing with it devastating winds, flooding rainfall, and an unprecedented fifteen feet of storm surge– an abnormal rise in water level caused by tropical systems– that would decimate the city of Tampa and its barrier islands. 

Residents heeded the warning and hundreds of thousands evacuated from Florida’s western coast. Those who stayed boarded their windows, secured outdoor furniture, trimmed and removed trees that were at risk of being blown over, and braced themselves for the very real possibility that they were about to weather a once-in-a-generation hurricane.

However, Milton wobbled just slightly in the final moments before landfall and instead moved ashore in Sarasota County, which spared Tampa the worst-case scenario that residents had spent days preparing for. 

Make no mistake, Hurricane Milton caused widespread devastation at the point of landfall in the Tampa Bay Area and many miles inland. The power grid failed, astronomical rainfall totals flooded rivers and inland neighborhoods, and unforgiving winds battered all of central Florida in the overnight and early morning hours. The outer bands of the storm spurred an unprecedented tornado outbreak across the state. One of the tornadoes was a powerful EF-3 that became the deadliest hurricane-spawned tornado on record. Once again, though, a near miss for the Bay means that things could have been much worse.

Tampa’s bizarre lucky streak didn’t start in 2004, however. It extends far beyond the last twenty hurricane seasons. Tampa has not been hit directly by a major hurricane in over a century. So, there is one question on everyone’s mind as storm after storm shifts away from Tampa: How does this keep happening?

In a world blessed with an abundance of scientific information and advanced forecasting techniques, there should seemingly be a straightforward answer– and there are credible theories. A study done by Columbia University suggests that the winds that steer hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico naturally steer storms away from Tampa Bay. Sure, a storm could be steered into the bay, but it would be like threading a needle, experts say. Not impossible, but improbable. Even with a scientific explanation available, however, some Floridians favor a supernatural explanation. 

Before their eradication by Spanish forces in the sixteenth century, Tampa was inhabited for hundreds of years by the Tocobaga indigenous tribe. The Tocobaga built villages consisting of mounds and communal meeting spaces, and they subsisted on shellfish and wild game. They developed tools for cooking, eating, and hunting. Most notably, the tribe built burial mounds for their deceased. 

In approximately 1528, Spanish explorer Pánfilo de Narváez arrived in the area, and he and his men brought disease and violence to the tribe, which led to their extinction. Most traces of the tribe have been lost to time and the mass development of their land.

A few of their burial mounds, however, remain in the area to this day. Some overlook the bay. 

The presence of those burial mounds and the inexplicable lack of hurricanes has inspired quite a tall tale: The Tocoboga people must have blessed the grounds surrounding their dead, and that blessing must be protecting the area from destruction by natural disasters.

On the surface, it’s a silly local legend told to entertain schoolchildren or quiet the nerves of a hurricane season rookie. However, as Tampa residents feel the weight of hurricane season fatigue, many are clinging to the hope that there is some truth to the story and that the paranormal force field will continue to hold.

However, Tampa has been hit directly before. In 1921, before hurricanes were named, Tampa was devastated by a hurricane that made landfall in the area and caused eight deaths and mass destruction. The National Weather Service calls the storm “The Forgotten Nightmare,” as many residents have allowed the storm to slip from their minds, leading them to a false sense of security. 

Experts maintain that a direct hit for Tampa Bay will be catastrophic. While wind damage is always a concern during strong hurricanes, the main threat to Florida’s most vulnerable cities is flooding.

Most coastal areas along the bay are low-lying, and the offshore continental shelf is wide and shallow. The infrastructure along the waterline is not built to dispel flood waters and would instead funnel them inland and make it hard for water to drain. Further, the shape of the bay would allow high winds to push an extraordinary amount of water onshore. Separate from bay water being pushed onshore, river basins in the area are prone to flooding and do so regularly during indirect hits from hurricanes, like 2024’s Milton. In a major hurricane, storm surge and river flooding could occur simultaneously– a phenomenon known as compound flooding. 

For many years, Florida coastlines had natural protection from extreme flooding in the form of expansive beachlines and naturally occurring mangroves. However, as more people flock to the peninsula, overdevelopment depletes those resources and erodes the beaches, which allows more water to rush ashore. All of these factors combine into one perilous reality: In the event of a major landfall, millions will be vulnerable to fatal flooding. 

So, if Tampa Bay has been merely lucky instead of the beneficiary of folklorish protections– what does that mean for residents of the Tampa Bay region?

It means what experts have been saying for decades– A major hurricane will hit eventually, and the impacted cities are woefully unprepared for when it does. When hurricane season begins, residents should take stock of their hurricane emergency kits and review their evacuation plans. Most importantly, when the inevitable forecast arrives, and there is no last-minute shift to save them, locals should heed evacuation warnings and abandon the legend of the Tocobaga Tribe’s protection.

This was written by our contributing writer, Kate Schifano.